New US population study projects steep rise in cardiovascular diseases by 2060

The likelihood of developing a CV is predicted to rise dramatically among minorities while falling among White people.

According to a study published today in the Journal of the American College of Cardiology, the expected rates of cardiovascular risk factors and illness would considerably rise in the United States by the year 2060. Significant rises in cardiovascular trends might place a greater strain on the American healthcare system and underscore the need for fair access to early disease preventive services including education and treatment.

The researchers coupled the census numbers with the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors or illness based on the U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. They utilized data from the 2020 U.S. Census Bureau report for the years 2025 to 2060. The researchers analyzed expected cardiovascular risk factors and illnesses depending on sex (male and female), age (18-44 years; 45-64 years; 67-79 years; >80 years), race, and ethnicity from these projections (Asian, Black, Hispanic, White and other). The researchers looked at expected rates for ischemic heart disease, heart failure, heart attacks, and stroke, as well as the cardiovascular risk factors diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia, and obesity.

All four CV risk factors are anticipated to rise among the general U.S. population between 2025 and 2060, with diabetes seeing the largest percentage increase (a rise to 55 million people from 39.3%), followed by dyslipidemia (a rise to 126M), hypertension (a rise to 162M), and obesity (a rise to 25.1%). (18.3 percent to 126M). The researchers discovered that ischemic heart disease (30.7 percent to 29M) and heart attack were the two cardiovascular illnesses with the biggest anticipated increases in rates, respectively, followed by stroke (33.8 percent to 15M) and heart failure (33.4 percent to 13M) (16.9 percent to 16M).

With the exception of obesity, where women are forecast to continue to have a greater prevalence than men, projections for CV risk factors or illnesses from 2025 to 2060 are likely to stable for both genders and across age groups. However, all estimates for minority racial and ethnic groupings increased dramatically, whereas projections for White people fell progressively. The Black population is anticipated to have the highest burden of CV risk factors among all racial and ethnic groups. Additionally, it is anticipated that the Black and Hispanic populations would be most affected by increases in CVD rates.

According to James L. Januzzi Jr., MD, a cardiologist at Massachusetts General Hospital's Cardiology Division, Hutter Family Professor of Medicine at Harvard Medical School, Trustee of the ACC, and senior author of the study, "Our analysis projects that the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors and diseases will continue to rise with worrisome trends." "These remarkable estimates will disproportionately affect racial and ethnic minority communities in the U.S. Understanding these findings could help future public health policy initiatives and enable us to develop fair preventative and treatment strategies."

The researchers advocate emphasizing education on CV risk factors, expanding access to excellent health care and allowing lower-cost access to effective treatment regimens to stop the growing tide of CVD in at-risk individuals. Additionally, health policies must be created to expand access to care for historically underserved groups, implement specialized preventive measures, and dismantle larger systems that leave racial and ethnic minorities with subpar healthcare.

Reza Mohebi, MD, the Dennis and Marilyn Barry Fellow in Cardiology at Massachusetts General Hospital and the study's primary author, stated that the study's findings ultimately represent a significant issue since prevention is crucial to reducing the burden of cardiovascular disease in the future. "Health care officials will need to allocate preventative measures and health care resources to the more susceptible populations we estimated to have greater percentage growth in illness in order to lessen the burden of cardiovascular disease in the U.S. population."

The significance of this work cannot be overstated, according to Andreas Kalogeropoulos, MD, MPH, PhD, clinical and outcomes researcher at Stony Brook University Medical Center and author of the editorial comment that is included with this article. "The dizzying absolute statistics indicate that, as compared to 2025, the proportion of people—and notably minorities—with CV risk factors is anticipated to rise sharply by 2060. Disparities in the burden of cardiovascular disease will only worsen over time if focused action is not done."

The usual approach of predicting future CV illness by assuming future patterns of CV risk variables is one of the study's many drawbacks. The estimations of probable long-term effects of COVID-19 on the cardiovascular system were not taken into account by the study's authors. Finally, self-report was used to define CVDs.

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Materials provided by American College of Cardiology. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.